(这条文章已经被阅读了 133 次) 时间：2000-12-28 14:45:58 来源：田辉 (田辉) 原创-IT
我们的2001：关于未来的12个预言
1．微软胜诉
在联邦反托拉斯检查官们看来，比尔·盖茨的微软帝国就是一头贪婪、傲慢的巨兽。可是在美国，一切得按法律办事。面目狰狞并不一定罪该万死，无论是杰克逊法官，还是微软的律师们，大家都在按《联邦反托拉斯法》划定的道儿在走，结局到底怎样，也许秋后揭晓。
2．AT&T老板麦克·阿姆斯特朗下台
麦克·阿姆斯特朗是个满脑子充满幻想的美国老头。1999年春天，他说服董事会拿出900亿美元并购TCI（Tele-Communications, Inc.）和MediaOne，用于拓展AT&T的宽带业务。
老麦的前任罗伯特·艾伦及其对NCR有争议的收购，所有这些个阴影也许将会让AT&T的董事会在2001年考虑老麦的去留。
3．3G大行其道
用3G（第三代移动通讯）手机打电话？这在日本也许会马上变成事实。日本电信巨头DoCoMo已宣布在2001年5月推出3G服务，大约4000万欧洲人也将在2001年用上这种能上网的电话，中国人也卯足了劲儿要在3G上打个翻身仗，可是在美国，也许一时还得不出答案，他们还在为是用W-CDMA还是CDMA2000而争论不休。
4．P2P：新的经济模式
P2P（Path to Profit）将成为新的经营和管理模式。虽然连Napster这样的网络新宠都没有从互联网上淘到金，可是没有人在怀疑P2P的诱人之处，因为许多公司正在考虑如何把P2P应用到实际管理之中。
5．软件变得更聪明
毫无疑问，软件将会越来越聪明。2001年，你会拥有度身定做的软件，你的软件完全按照你的需求设计制作，你的生活也必将越来越富有个性。
6．媒体更疯狂
美国在线和时代华纳的合并已经得到联邦法院的肯定。毫无疑问，其他的媒体内容制作商和媒体传播商将会在2001年上演新的合并大戏。
7．CMGI综合症
CMGI（互联网头号泡沫，其股价在12个月内缩水96%）和其他互联网企业孵化器的好时光一去不复返了。短暂的收益期过去后是吞咽苦果的日子，太多太滥的风险投资99%注定无法回报。
8．蓝牙横空出世
蓝牙必将大行其道，这是不争的事实。在2000年11月的Comdex大会上，人们看到了许多使用蓝牙技术的产品，然而这只是冰山的一角，更多更精彩的蓝牙产品将会在2001年展现在我们眼前。
9．互联网将征税
对不起，免费搭车就快结束了。新经济和传统经济被人为地划分开来，这种区别在2001年将会越来越模糊，因为立法者们认定纳税是世上最天经地义的事情，新经济也不得例外。
10．Nasdaq重上4000点
许多美国人在查看他们的股票时觉得像是在自杀，因为Nasdaq在2000年让他们心痛不已。不过2001年的Nasdaq将会在一些货真价实的高科技公司的带动下重上4000点。
11．新的上网工具将层出不穷
虽然Java工作站和网络计算机刚刚宣告失败，但新的上网工具仍将层出不穷。靠这些新鲜玩意儿挣钱现在似乎还只是个梦想，但它们永远不会退场，因为互联网上永远不缺少聪明的头脑。
12．新一轮的黑客攻击
希望这个预言永远不会灵验，可是黑客们——这些互联网上的精灵——会在2001年发动至少一次灾难性的攻击。全世界的网管们或多或少地缺乏防黑经验，而且我们经常对电子邮件掉以轻心，问都不问就打开了附件。
（这篇文章根据ZDNet专栏作者Charles Cooper的预言编译而成，加了一点我的看法。沈卫利先生最先把它翻译成中文，但似乎和原文有出入，希望和沈先生还有Donews的朋友们探讨。）
原文如下：
The Coop’s 2001 predictions
By Charles Cooper, ZDNet News
December 26, 2000 3:03 PM PT
It’s that time of year again. At the risk of his reputation, The Coop has again consented to gaze into his crystal ball and predict the major themes for the year ahead. What’s your take? Chime in at the end of Coop’s column in the TalkBack section.
Microsoft wins on appeal. The Microserfs can be every bit as rapacious and arrogant as the trustbusters claimed they were. But bad press clippings don’t necessarily make for violations of antitrust law. Thomas Penfield Jackson blew the case on procedure and interpretation–and Microsoft’s lawyers are going to drive the equivalent of a Mack truck through the holes.
Adios to AT&T’s Armstrong. AT&T CEO Michael Armstrong will walk the plank. The all-American boy convinced his board to spend some $90 billion to acquire TCI and MediaOne. Shades of Robert Allen and his less-than-brilliant pursuit (and acquisition) of NCR, these two deals will force the company to change horses at the top.
3G Utopia? Fuggedaboutit. A lot of folks believe that 3G services will be all the rage next year. Maybe in Japan, where DoCoMo will start the ball rolling in the spring. But in the United States, that’s another story. The standards split between W-CDMA and CDMA2000 poses a huge problem that isn’t given to easy resolution.
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P2P wins the enterprise. The problem with Napster is that nobody has yet figured out how to make real money. But that doesn’t mean it’s a fad. Lots of corporations are thinking about how to apply P2P to supply chain management in a distributed computing model.
Software becomes intelligent. More closely targeted software designed for specific jobs will let consumers buy only the functionality they really want.
Media madness. With AOL and Time Warner finally receiving the green light from the trustbusters, 2001 will be the year other big content-creation and distribution companies make similar dashes for the altar.
CMGI fatigue. Internet holding companies such as CMGI enjoyed their 15 minutes of fame. But time’s up on the incubators. After temporarily benefiting from the Internet joyride, too many investments in too many dot bombs has come back to haunt them. Most–although not all–are going to be doomed.
Bluetooth finally gets real. I said it wouldn’t happen in 2000, and it didn’t, but this wireless protocol for short-range data transmissions is going to come into its own next year. Lots of companies offered sneak peeks of real Bluetooth products at the November Comdex show, and more are in the works from others; that’s a welcome change from the past three years when Bluetooth was more notable as the namesake of 10th-Century Viking king than for its payoff as a real-world technology.
The Internet gets taxed. Sorry, but the free ride is just about over. The artificial demarcation between so-called new economy and old company will further blur (what do you call Wal-Mart?) to the point that legislators just do what comes natural and vote for a tax.
Nasdaq 4000. Feeling quasi-suicidal after checking your stock portfolio recently? So are a lot of other folks who also thought the joyride would last forever. But unless you believe we’re on the verge of another Great Depression, there’s every reason to believe that quality tech companies are going to snap out of the doldrums in fine fettle. It won’t mark a return to irrational exuberance, but Nasdaq 4000 is well within reach.
Web-browsing appliances go bust. This second wave of devices, following hard upon the failure of the Java station and Network Computer, still remain a hard sell. There’s just not enough profit in making this kind of stuff. Before the year’s out, Larry Ellison will close down his New Internet Computer Co. And he won’t be the only one because this segment of the market is chock-a-block with dogs.
Another HUGE cyber attack. Hope I’m wrong, but unless people change their behavior–and we are creatures of custom–2001 will be pockmarked by at least one crippling attack on the Internet. IT administrators are short on trained help, while too many employees routinely ignore cautionary do’s and don’ts about opening attachments.